'Avoid going overweight on gold. But maintain a 10 per cent allocation via sovereign gold bonds,' Bajaj Capital MD Sanjiv Bajaj tells Sarbajeet K Sen.
The report did not specify the impact the rate hike will have on India.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
'I was feeling so suffocated under Yogiji's rule.'
The Federal Reserve must now ensure that higher inflation doesn't derail the US recovery.
Bajaj Finserv was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying around 7 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, HDFC, L&T, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma and NTPC. On the other hand, Tech Mahindra, ITC and M&M were the laggards.
After rallying over 300 points, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 169.14 points, or 0.42 per cent, higher at 40,581.71. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty settled 61.65 points, or 0.52 per cent, higher at 11,971.80.
Devangshu Datta predicts the good, the bad and the ugly of currency trends for the coming year.
The markets have been unable to sustain at higher levels as a rise in bond yields globally, especially in the US have dented sentiment. Surging commodity prices, especially crude oil that have now hit $70 a barrel (Brent) coupled with inflation woes and fear of sporadic lockdown across major economic hubs back home as Covid cases rise have chased the bulls away. In the short-term, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile as they react to news flow - both from overseas and developments back home. Investors, they say, need to keep a tab on how the US treasury yields move, which in turn will have a ripple effect on how big money moves across developed (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), including India.
Industrial countries cannot at this point wash their hands off developing economises and say we will do what we need to, and you do the adjustment you need to, says RBI Governor.
'Markets are factoring in a good show by India Inc in Q2.'
The Reserve Bank may be hitting the end of its tolerance for high inflation and will most likely hike interest rates in the first half of 2022, analysts said on Friday. The central bank will also start rolling back its accommodative policies which have led to easy liquidity conditions, they said. The view from analysts came even as inflation cooled down to 5.6 per cent for July, after two months of breaching the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Titan was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding 1.39 per cent, followed by HDFC, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Asian Paints, SBI, M&M, TCS, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank were among the winners, spurting as much as 3.25 per cent.
The BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices ended flat against Sensex's 0.4% up-move.
While FIIs have pumped in nearly Rs 17,000 crore, MFs have been net buyers to the tune of Rs 9,000 crore.
The 30-share Sensex closed 80 points lower at 21,753 levels while the 50-unit NSE Nifty index was down 38 points at 6486 levels. Benchmarks plunged to their lowest levels since March 06, 2014.
US Federal Reserve Chairper Janet Yellen hinted at raising interest rates sooner than expected, in her first press conference after assuming the top job at US central bank.
Bank of America (BofA) Securities expects India to be the third-largest economy in the world by 2031. The economic rise could become a reality by 2028, but the Covid pandemic delayed the pace, BofA Securities economists Indranil Sen Gupta and Aastha Gudwani wrote in a report.
The steep decline in commodity prices has reversed.
Not just India, but Asian peers such as Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and The Philippines have seen sharp FPI outflows this year
Thus far in FY21, BSE, NSE have rallied 70 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
Markets end in the red, midcaps in focus
Given the economic trends, it might make sense to allocate some savings to gold.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to take a "more dovish" stance in its upcoming monetary policy review on December 2 and may go in for a cut repo rate in February, according to a British brokerage house report.
The Indian currency was tracking the non-deliverable forwards while lower stock futures also hurt sentiment.
The central bank can directly print money and finance the government, but it should avoid doing so unless there is absolutely no alternative, former RBI governor D Subbarao on Wednesday said while pointing out that India is 'nowhere' near such a scenario. In an interview with PTI, Subbarao suggested that to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 induced slowdown in the economy, the government can consider Covid bonds as an option to raise borrowing, not in addition to budgeted borrowing, but as a part of that.
As if wanting to be an antidote to the coronavirus pandemic, the Indian stock market adorned carnival robes in 2021 with a tsunami of liquidity unleashed by global central banks coupled with supportive domestic policies and the world's largest vaccination drive sparking off a world-beating rally on Dalal Street, despite bouts of uneasiness over fizzy valuations. While the wider economy shuttled between recovery and relapse, dictated by multiple mutations of the virus, equity market benchmarks appeared headed in just one direction -- skywards. The dizzying upward journey has added a whopping Rs 72 lakh crore during 2021 to investors' wealth, measured as the cumulative value of all listed shares in the country, taking it to nearly Rs 260 lakh crore.
China would contribute $41bn towards the pool. Brazil, India and Russia would contribute $18bn each; South Africa $5bn.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Tata Steel, Kotak Bank, NTPC, HDFC twins, PowerGrid and ONGC, rising up to 4.60 per cent.
Everything seems to be falling in place for the new RBI governor but there is a need to prepare for the imminent tapering by the Fed.
'Sectors that had been left out till now will also start participating in the rally.'
Given the impact Covid-19 pandemic had over the world economy, analysts expect global central banks, especially the US Fed, to keep the liquidity tap open, which, in turn, is likely to keep the equity markets, especially those in the emerging markets, buoyant.
Kotak Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 2 per cent, followed by ICICI Bank, PowerGrid, HDFC, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank. NSE Nifty declined 45.75 points to 16,568.85.
Strong dollar will impact financial system in India.
'It was because of the huge selloff in the Indian equities that the rupee fell so sharply against the dollar on Friday.'
Traders suspect The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bought bonds and actively intervened in the rupee to support sentiment.
'Thankfully, most investors in India have now seen through this false narrative and are once again deploying their hard-earned money.
The BSE Sensex rose on Wednesday to mark a record close as telecom firms such as Bharti Airtel surged on better-than-expected operating performance, while continued strong foreign flows also boosted sentiment.
